Freedom of Uncertainty
We'd like to think the world is a simple thing, but simplicity often evades us - too many details for us, yet some say "information is everything".
Beyond point, we support range estimates, and try to see what happens. Since this helps you record more of your intuition/implicit knowledge, it may help you build a better grip on reality. Hope you'll join in on this experiment!
E.g. Cleaning (1+-0.5) is one of the valid ways in F|P to additionally describe your uncertainty around the estimate in Cleaning (1), the name of a card that is expected to take 1 story point.
These ranges are treated as 2×34.13% ≈70% symmetric confidence intervals of probabilistic variables, but you could just think of them simply as something about that blurry with your average guess in the middle. We unveil some of our reasons for using the following bell curve-like distribution as a starting point behind the scenes.
We are aware there are flaws in this - these are approximate calculations, among the assumptions that are harder to justify you'll find independence and that normal variables are unbounded.
Still a start! And this uncertainty will accrue and appear in the total estimates F|P provides you with on the fly - allowing you to plan sprints with more confidence and clarity.
Whether or not that accurate, it is an additional clue, the constituent estimates are probably also easier, faster to give, since you can be more honest - besides, even if the approach needs to be revised otherwise, the extra quantitative data you will have recorded is gold!
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